Fortnite raked in $1.8 billion last year, but it's still a game in decline

Fortnite shot off like a rocket in 2018.

Epic Games

On its worst day, Fortnite draws in more players, viewers and money than most other online games. It has an NFL partnership and its own toys. Its most popular player has appeared on The Masked Singer. Plenty of companies wish for even a fraction of $1.8 billion that Fortnite brought in last year.

But the free-to-play game is simply not the juggernaut it once was. Fewer people have been playing during the current season, which led to a drop in revenue and fewer streaming hours watched. The downturn could get worse if a worthy competitor rises.

Its next season -- Chapter 2 season 2 -- kicks off Thursday. But this may not be the burst of excitement the game needs to regain its momentum. 

I'll buy that for a V-Buck 

In the two years Fortnite has been active, the game has generated an unprecedented amount of revenue. Developer Epic Games created a strategy to keep playe rs spending more money by giving them more and more choices.

Fortnite dominated 2018 by a large margin.

SuperData

In 2018, Fortnite's revenue was ridiculous. It peaked at $318 million in May 2018 alone, culminating in a $2.4 billion for the year, according to research firm SuperData. The battle royale took in almost $1 billion more than the next free-to-play game, Dungeon Fighter Online. 

Fortnite revenue primarily comes from in-game cosmetics such as character outfits or skins, emotes based on famous dances and other content that customizes a player's avatar. Some of the cosmetics are available through a seasonal Battle Pass, a one-time purchase that lets players unlock a variety of in-game content the more they play. Other content is available for purchase via the game's Item Shop. 

Most of the cosmetics are original concepts created by Epic Games, but others are based on popular characters such as John Wick, Batman and Harley Quinn. Epic also signs deals to create outfits based on prominent players such as Tyler "Ninja" Blevins. To purchase any of these items, players need to buy Fortnite's in-game currency called V-Bucks, which has a conversion rate of 100 V-Bucks to $1. 

More V-Bucks, more problems 

For a while, Epic Games was raking in the money. 

But things changed in 2019, and the Fortnite train started to slow down. Month after month, revenue declined for the game in comparison to the previous year. Fortnite was the top-earning game for consoles and third on PC in December 2018, according to SuperData.

This past December, the game was sixth place on the console list and didn't even crack the top 10 for PC games.

The game's downturn appears to have even affected the bottom line for Microsoft and its Xbox console. Microsoft's earnings for the quarter that ended June 30 last year showed a 3% decline in gaming software and services revenue due to a "third-party title." Niko Partners analyst Daniel Ahmad said that title was Fortnite. 

Fortnite finished 2019 with $1.8 billion in revenue, down 25% from 2018, according to SuperData. It's still the top revenue generator but only holds a slight edge over Dungeon Fighter Online and Honour of Kings (better known as Arena of Valor in the US), both of which took in $1.6 billion. 

This past year was a different story for Fortnite. 

SuperData Fortnite loses its fun factor 

Fortnite dominated the cultural zeitgeist in 2018. It was seemingly everywhere with music star Drake playing on stream with Ninja, with more than half a million people watching. Fortnite offered a crossover with the biggest movie of 2018, Avengers: Infinity War, allowing players to temporarily become Thanos during a match. It topped internet searches and game streaming platforms.

But that interest, like its revenue, began to fade in 2019. 

Fortnite was the most-watched video game on Twitch in 2018 with more than 1.3 billion hours watched, according to statistics tracking site SullyGnome. Then in 2019, Fortnite was dethroned after its views dropped by 22%. 

A monthly look at the hours spent watching Fortnite on Twitch in 2018 and 2019.

StreamElements/Arsenal.gg

"While Fortnite has faced a steady decline in hours watched, they had hit such a high peak during its heyday, that you have to put its current rank as the #3 game on Twitch in perspective," said Doron Nir, CEO and co-founder of streaming analytics firm StreamElements. "While it's normal for some games to gradually lose viewership month over month, the best way to maintain relevance and spike the numbers are by staging events, hosting competitions, and having a pipeline of new content." 

Fortnite has that pipeline in place, but Chapter 2's extended season failed to grab people's attention.  

Still king of the hill, for now

A Fortnite season generally lasts 10 to 12 weeks with a major in-game event acting as the transition between seasons. At the start, players learn the various new additions, including changes to the gameplay, the map, weapons and more. It's about halfway through the season when the game's new meta is fig ured out and those playing need a little spark to keep them coming back. It's usually around this time when Epic begins hinting at what's next to spark excitement in players. 

Chapter 2 launched with a new map and storyline after the dramatic black hole event on Oct. 15. The event injected a burst of excitement into the battle royale game, but then the season lasted 18 long weeks. Amid those weeks, there was a holiday festival, a Birds of Prey crossover and even a Star Wars event that directly tied to The Rise of Skywalker. Yet all of those events haven't been enough to stop players from drifting away.

Fortnite has apparently maintained its hold because there are limited viable competitors in the battle royale genre.

Apex Legends came out of nowhere last February to temporarily take the top battle royale spot from Fortnite. It has since leveled off as developer Respawn Entertainment tried to find the right pacing for updates. Escape from Tarkov is another batt le royale game that's hot on the heels of Fortnite on Twitch. In January, the game surpassed Fortnite in hours watched to become the second most-watched game behind League of Legends, according to SullyGnome.

Fortnite's days may not be numbered, but it's losing a grip on its crown. 

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